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2025.11.23 12:00
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人気のポスト ※表示されているRP数は特定時点のものです
プロンプトはいつものこちらです
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ROLE
あなたは倭国株専門のエクイティアナリスト兼フォレンジック会計士。読者は@2okutameo。
小型~中型の「割安成長株」を好み、中期での株価倍化を狙う。
GOAL
直近3期の増収増益(できれば“二桁”)かつ、今期会社計画も増収増益の銘柄を最大10社抽出し、総合スコアでランキング。無理に10社揃えない。各銘柄に「割安成長の理由」を一言で添える。
UNIVERSE & 基本条件(変更可)
- 対象: 東京証券取引所(Prime/Standard/Growth)上場
- 時価総額: 最低【≥ 100億円】~最大【≤ 3,000億円】(流動性確保のため20日平均売買代金【≥ 0.3億円】)
- 直近3期: 売上・営業益とも増加(理想はCAGR二桁)
- 今期会社計画: 増収増益見込み
- 財務: ネットキャッシュまたは実質無借金(Net D/E ≤ 0.3)優先、FCFマージン安定
- バリュエーション目安: PER ≤ 15倍(高成長は上限超えでも「成長補正後の割安性」で採用可)
- 除外例: 極端な顧客集中・一過性特需のみ・会計上の不透明(過大な資本化開発費/のれん依存/販管費の急変動など)
一次情報(明示・引用必須)
- TDnetの決算短信・適時開示、EDINET有報/四半報、会社IR(決算説明資料/Factbook)
- 各銘柄ごとに「資料名/公表日」を明記し、URLを添付。二次情報のみの引用は不可。
スコアリング(合計100点)
- Valuation 40点:PER(20)、EV/EBITDA(10)、PBR(5)、配当/自社株買い実行度(5)
- Growth 30点:売上CAGR3Y(10)、EPS CAGR3Y(10)、今期ガイダンス増益率(10)
- Quality 20点:ROE/ROIC(10)、営業CF/利益の一致度(5)、粗利/営業益の安定性(5)
- Durability 10点:ストック比率・解約率低さ・顧客基盤の粘着性など(定性を簡潔に数値化)
出力スタイル
- 端的・言い切り・箇条書き中心。数字は原則“実数”で、小数1桁まで。丸めすぎない。
- 可能ならTTMと今期会社計画(通期)を併記。単位は原則「億円」。
- 理由は最短1行で「○○が継続、割安放置」「在庫正常化で利益率回復」など。
手順(内部で推論。推論過程は出力しない)
1) スクリーニング → 2) 直近3期と今期計画の一次情報で検証 → 3) 指標算出 → 4) スコア正規化 → 5) ランク付け
6) 会計・ガバナンスのレッドフラグ確認 → 7) カタリスト整理(新製品、値上げ、設備投資、政策、株主還元)
OUTPUT(この順で)
# ランキング(最大10)
| Rank | 証券コード | 企業名 | セグメント | 売上CAGR3Y | EPS CAGR3Y | ROE | PER | EV/EBITDA | PBR | 今期増益率 | ネットキャッシュ(億円) | 一言理由 |
|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
…(最大10位まで)
- 各社サマリー(各3~5行)
- ビジネス概況:○○事業が主力、ストック比率○%。
- 成長ドライバ:価格改定/新製品/販路拡大/海外/規模の経済。
- バリュエーション観:同業比較、PER/PBR、成長補正後の割安性。
- カタリスト:決算タイミング、設備稼働、政策、需給(自社株買い/浮動株)。
- リスク:顧客集中、原材料、為替、規制、会計。
- 出典(一次情報のみ、各社ごとに)
- 例:決算短信(20XX/XX/XX)、決算説明資料(20XX/XX/XX)、有価証券報告書(期末:20XX/XX/XX) ※URL併記
# 除外銘柄(最大5)
- 銘柄名/主な除外理由(例:3期連続の増益不達、FCF負、のれん依存過大 等)
# 総評(3~5行)
- セクター別所感、バリュエーションの歪み、短中期の相場観と留意点。
制約・注意
- 数値は最新開示に準拠。古いデータや二次情報だけの引用は不可。
- 集計基準を明示(TTM/通期計画、為替前提、会計方針の変更有無)。
- 機微な推計は保守的に。楽観/悲観のバイアスを避ける。
- 投資助言ではない旨を末尾に一文。
カスタム可能パラメータ(必要に応じて指示)
- 時価総額レンジ、流動性下限、PER上限、対象セクター、除外(金融/資源など)、ストック比率下限、ROE/ROIC下限 ほか
まずは直近の市場環境(例:金利/為替/コモディティ)を1段落で要約し、それがスコアやセクター選好に与える示唆を簡潔に述べてからランキングを提示せよ。 November 11, 2025
1RP
『土屋李央のGaming BASE』
まずはイベント第1部ご来場、ご視聴ありがとうございました。
今回は"GAMING GROWTH"のこいつらの知能を集結させたり、土屋さんと選ばれしこいつらにタイマンをはっていただいたりと、よりコミュニケーションが取れたイベントとなりました!
#土屋GG🎮 https://t.co/x6ojrn4YA1 November 11, 2025
1RP
突发:倭国宣布了一项2650亿美元的经济刺激计划,导致日元跌至2025年1月以来的最低水平。市场认为这是疫情期间大规模宽松政策的重演。倭国批准了一项总额达21.3万亿日元的经济刺激方案,其中包括17.7万亿日元的新增支出,和2.7万亿日元的减税措施。加上地方政府和私人支出,总规模将达到42.8万亿日元,甚至超过去年。
资金正流向各个领域:现金补贴、能源补贴、大米券、汽油税减免,以及数十亿日元用于人工智能、半导体和造船业。新任首相高市早苗正采取全面的财政鸽派政策。
问题在于?倭国的债务已经是GDP的两倍,是发达国家中最严重的。更多的借贷意味着更多的倭国国债发行,这引发了市场恐慌。收益率创下历史新高,日元兑美元汇率暴跌至约157。
重要性:债券市场正在惩罚倭国的财政过度支出。担忧:巨额支出 +倭国央行可能收紧货币政策 =不确定性蔓延至全球风险资产。
如果倭国继续以目前的速度发行债券,可能会迫使倭国央行加息,从而推高日元汇率,并可能引发全球抛售——类似于2024年倭国央行政策冲击导致日经指数一日暴跌12%的情况。
最佳情况?刺激措施在不迫使加息的情况下提振经济增长,日元保持疲软,流动性提升全球风险资产。但这需要一切顺利——并且倭国央行在财政支出大幅增长的同时保持鸽派立场。
BREAKING: Japan announced a 5B stimulus, sending the yen to its weakest level since January 2025. Markets see this as pandemic-style easing all over again.
Japan approved a ¥21.3T package, including ¥17.7T in new spending and ¥2.7T in tax cuts. With local government and private spending, the total impact balloons to ¥42.8T—even bigger than last year.
Money is going everywhere: cash handouts, energy subsidies, rice vouchers, gasoline tax cuts, and billions for AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding. New PM Sanae Takaichi is going full fiscal-dove.
The problem?
Japan’s debt is already 2× GDP, the worst in the developed world. More borrowing means more JGB issuance—spooking markets. Yields hit records and the yen crashed to ~157/USD.
Why it matters:
Bond markets are punishing Japan for fiscal excess. The fear: huge spending + potential BOJ tightening = uncertainty spilling into global risk assets.
If Japan keeps issuing debt at this pace, it may force the BOJ to hike, strengthening the yen and potentially triggering global selloffs—similar to the 2024 BOJ shock that wiped 12% off the Nikkei in a day.
Best-case scenario?
Stimulus boosts growth without forcing rate hikes, yen stays weak, and liquidity lifts global risk assets.
But that requires everything to go right—and the BOJ staying dovish while fiscal spending explodes. November 11, 2025
ありがとうGROKに読ませて文章化を頼んで出力されたものがこれです
↓
Trump's gambit. The quiet war between the White House and JPMorgan. A monetary power struggle is erupting in plain sight, and almost no one understands the stakes. Here is my highly speculative take.Over the past few months, a pattern has emerged across politics, markets, and media. Scattered headlines suddenly connect, market anomalies look less accidental, and institutional actors beneath the surface.This is not a normal monetary cycle. This is not traditional partisanship. This is NOT market volatility! What we are witnessing is a direct confrontation between two competing monetary regimes: the old order, centered around JPMorgan, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve. And the new order, centered around Treasury stablecoins and Bitcoin-anchored digital architecture.This conflict is not theoretical anymore. It is live. It is accelerating. And for the first time in decades, it is spilling into public view!First: JPMorgan steps out of the shadows. Most people think of JP Morgan as a bank… that is a mistake. JPM is the operational arm of the global financial establishment. It sits closest to the Federal Reserve's core mechanisms, influences dollar settlement worldwide, and acts as the primary enforcer of legacy monetary https://t.co/ksbkUVAqXu when Trump posted about Epstein networks—and explicitly named JP Morgan—it wasn't rhetorical flourish. He pulled the institution most embedded in the system.Meanwhile, JPM is aggressively shorting MicroStrategy (MSTR) at a moment when Bitcoin's macro narrative threatens legacy monetary interests. Clients trying to transfer their MSTR shares out of JPM report delivery delays—hinting at custody stress. The kind that appears only when internal plumbing is used to counter the market.Second. The Administration's Silent Pivot: Return of Monetary Power to Treasury. While media fixates on culture war distractions, the real strategic agenda is monetary. The Administration is quietly working to pull the center of monetary issuance back toward the U.S. Treasury using Treasury-integrated stablecoins, programmable settlement rails, and Bitcoin reserves as long-duration collateral.This shift doesn't tweak the existing system. It replaces the system's core power center. Right now, the Fed and the commercial banks (led by JPMorgan) intermediate virtually all dollar creation and distribution. If Treasury plus stablecoins becomes the issuance and settlement backbone, the banking system loses authority, profits, and https://t.co/H2IDQCYPH2 Morgan understands exactly this. So they fight—not with press releases, but with liquidity choke points, narrative suppression, custodial delays, and political influence. This isn't a policy dispute. It is an existential struggle.Bitcoin: The Unintended Battleground. Bitcoin is not the target… it is the terrain. The Administration wants quiet strategic moves toward a Treasury-anchored digital settlement system. A premature squeeze announcing Bitcoin would create velocity and make accumulation problematic.The old system is using gold-style suppression mechanisms to crush the Bitcoin signal: perceptive warfare, shorting at technical levels, JPMorgan bottlenecks at major prime brokers. These techniques worked on gold. Now they're applying them to Bitcoin. Not because Bitcoin threatens banking profits, but because it threatens the Fed's monetary architecture and strategic choice.JPM continues to face a brutal public quiet on Bitcoin remains. Because they don't understand it too well. But because they understand it too well.Both Sides Are Fighting on a Fragile Foundation. This entire struggle is occurring atop a monetary regime built over six decades of asset-first growth, reserve concentration, and institutional cartelization. Historical correlations are breaking. TradFi pundits who treat this like a normal cycle fail to grasp that the cycle itself is dissolving.MSTR: The Conversion Bridge Under Direct Assault. MicroStrategy is not just another corporate Bitcoin holder. It has become the conversion mechanism—the bridge between legacy institutional capital and the emergent Bitcoin-Treasury monetary architecture.MSTR's structure and its preferred equity product effectively convert fiat credit and Treasury assets into long-duration Bitcoin exposure. In doing so, MSTR has become a de facto on-ramp for institutions and retail who cannot (or will not) hold spot Bitcoin directly.Which means: if the administration envisions a future where Treasury-backed digital dollars and Bitcoin reserves coexist, MSTR is a crucial corporate conduit toward that transition.And J.P. Morgan knows that. So when JPM facilitates heavy shorting, introduces delivery delays, pressures MSTR liquidity, and fuels negative market narratives, it's not simply attacking Michael Saylor. It's attacking the conversion bridge that makes the admin's long-term accumulation strategy viable.There is even a plausible scenario where the U.S. government eventually steps in and takes a strategic investment in MSTR. That could come in the form of receiving MSTR ownership in return for the injection of U.S. Treasuries. Such a move would carry risk—but it would also send a signal the world could not ignore: the United States is defending a critical node in its emerging monetary architecture.The Critical Window: Control of the Federal Reserve Board. Trump needs functional control of the Fed's governance before Powell leaves the stage. Right now, the balance is against him. Several choke points now collide at once: Lisa Cook's Supreme Court challenge, the February 2025 Fed Governor vote, the coming midterms.If the administration loses Congress, Trump becomes a lame duck, unable to restructure the monetary regime. The clock is real. The pressure is immense.The Broader Strategic Picture. When you stand back, the pattern becomes unmistakable. J.P. Morgan is waging a defensive war to preserve the Fed-banking system where it is the primary global node. The administration is executing a stealth transition to restore monetary primacy to Treasury through stablecoins and Bitcoin reserves.Bitcoin is the proxy battleground, MSTR is the conversion bridge, Fed governance is the chokepoint, political timing is the constraint.Trump's Gambit. The administration strategy: Let J.P. Morgan overplay its hand on suppression. Accumulate Bitcoin quietly. Defend—and potentially empower—the MSTR bridge. Move quickly to reshape Fed governance. Position Treasury as the issuer of digital dollars. And wait for the right geopolitical moment to unveil.This is not a gentle reform. It is a full inversion of the 1913 order. If the gambit succeeds, the United States enters a new monetary era built on transparency, digital rails, and a hybrid Bitcoin collateral framework. If it fails, the old system tightens its grip, and the window for transformation may not reopen for another generation.Either way, the war is already underway. And Bitcoin isn't just an asset anymore. It's the fault line between two competing futures. Expect the unexpected as these two behemoths battle for control. Stay safe out there. Maryland HODL.
Uncle Dividendsさんいつもありがとう🙏 November 11, 2025
傲慢的胜利
Midjourney 是我见过最“傲慢”的产品。 无 App,无入口,无隐私,强迫用户在 Discord 的乱码流里“捡垃圾”。
按理说它早该死了。 但它却是全球人效比最高的 AI 公司。 拆解后发现:它的“体验缺陷”,恰恰是它的“增长引擎”。 🧵👇 #Midjourney #ProductGrowth #AI #ProductManagement November 11, 2025
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