彼得·林奇的【PEG】指标与25条股票投资黄金法则

彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch，1944年1月19日出生）是美国历史上最著名的基金经理之一，被誉为“历史上最成功的主动型股票基金经理”和“华尔街股神”之一。

主要成就：
1977年至1990年担任富达（Fidelity）公司旗下的麦哲伦基金（Magellan Fund）经理，这13年间，他将基金资产从1800万美元管理到140亿美元（增长约777倍）。
年平均复合回报率达到29.2%，是同期标普500指数的近3倍，被称为“投资界的传奇业绩”。
他管理的麦哲伦基金一度成为全球资产规模最大的主动管理股票基金。

彼得·林奇发明的、也是他最常用、最喜欢的一个选股指标就是 PEG（有时候也叫“林奇PEG”）。

PEG的定义
PEG = 市盈率（PE） ÷ 每股收益年增长率（EPS Growth Rate）
市盈率（PE）= 当前股价 ÷ 每股收益（越低越便宜）
每股收益增长率（G）= 公司未来3-5年预计的年化盈利增长率（单位：%）
公式写出来就是： PEG = PE ÷ G

彼得·林奇对PEG的判断标准（他书中明确写过的）

他最经典的一句话是：
“PEG低于1的股票，我几乎从没亏过钱。”
“理想的股票是PEG在0.5以下的成长股。”

林奇使用PEG时的几个关键提醒（他反复强调）
- 增长率要“合理可预期”，不能用分析师最乐观的数字，要用自己判断的保守数字。
- 最好用于成长股利不高的成长型公司（成长率15%-50%之间最理想）。
- 对周期性公司要特别小心，盈利大起大落会导致PEG失真。
- PEG不是唯一指标，还要结合负债率、现金流、竞争优势一起看。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

彼得·林奇在书中为读者列举的25条股票投资黄金法则：

1. Investing is fun, exciting, and dangerous if you don’t do any work.
投资很有趣、很刺激，但如果你不做功课，也很危险。

2. Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.
你的投资优势不是华尔街专家给你的，而是你已经拥有的。只要投资你熟悉的公司或行业，你就能胜过专家。

3. Over the past three decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to what you might think, this great rotation has had no negative effect on the performance of individual investors.
过去30年，股市被职业投资人组成的“羊群”主导。但和你想的不同，这并没有让散户表现更差。

4. Every year there are several surprises in the stock market. In a good year, half the surprises are pleasant ones.
每年股市都会有几件意想不到的事。好年景里，有一半是好惊喜。

5. If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
如果你不研究公司，买股票的胜率就跟打扑克不看牌一样。

6. Time and again you hear that “you can’t time the market. But nobody can predict the economy, interest rates, or the stock market, so drop that cliché from your repertoire.
老是说“没人能预测市场”，但既然没人能准确预测经济、利率和股市，那就别再拿这句话当借口了。

7. If you study 10 companies, you’ll find 1–2 bargains; if you study 50 companies, you’ll find 4–5 bargains. The more companies you study, the better the bargains you can discover.
研究10家公司，你能找到1–2个便宜货；研究50家，你能找到4–5个。研究越多，发现的机会越多。

8. Behind every stock there is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
每只股票后面都有一家公司，搞清楚它在干什么。

9. Companies that no analyst follows often bring the greatest returns.
没人跟踪的公司，往往带来最大回报。

10. If you find a stock with little or no institutional ownership, you’ve found a potential winner.
机构持股很少甚至没有的股票，往往是潜在的大赢家。

11. Never invest in any company before you’ve done the homework on the company’s earnings prospects, financial condition, competitive position, etc.
在没做功课（盈利前景、财务状况、竞争地位等）之前，绝不要投资任何公司。

12. The extravagance of any corporate office is in direct proportion to the stupidity of the corporation’s management.
公司办公室越奢华，管理层越蠢。（相关度极高）

13. When insiders are buying, it’s a good sign—unless they happen to be buying because they’re being forced to buy by the company’s stock-option plan.
高管大量买入是好信号——除非他们是被强制认股权计划逼着买的。

14. Never invest in a company without understanding its financial statements.
不懂财报的公司，绝不投。

15. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold or lukewarm industries often produce better returns.
避开热门行业里的热门股，冷门或不被看好的行业里的伟大公司往往回报更高。

16. When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 by 6 percent or more, sell stocks and buy bonds.
当长期国债收益率比标普500股息率高6%或以上时，卖股票买债券。（这条是林奇自己标注的“最不靠谱的一条”）

17. Small companies (micro-caps) often produce the best returns, but you have to be able to find the good ones.
小盘股往往回报最高，但前提是你得能挑到好公司。

18. The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.
最好买的股票，可能就是你已经持有的那只。

19. A sure cure to take the fun out of investing is to try to make it into a full-time job.
把投资当成全职工作，是让它失去乐趣的最快方法。

20. Never fall in love with a stock; always have an open mind.
永远不要爱上一只股票，要保持开放心态。

21. It’s not a sin to sell a winner to take profits.
卖掉赢家落袋为安不是罪过。

22. The bigger the company, the less likely it is to grow rapidly.
公司越大，越难高速成长。

23. In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.
对企业来说，竞争永远不如完全垄断“健康”。

24. All else being equal, a 20-percent decline in the market is a buying opportunity.
其他条件不变时，市场下跌20%就是买入机会。

25. There’s no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or, worse, to buy more of it, when the fundamentals are deteriorating.
在一只股票上亏钱没什么丢人的，谁都会亏。最丢人的是基本面已经恶化了，你却死抱不放，甚至越跌越买。 November 11, 2025

@AboutMusicYT "와 리치맨 편곡 진짜 시원하다 진짜 락 느낌 확 남 ㅠㅠㅠㅠ"

"aespaちゃん美しすぎる憧れ！年々パワーアップするパフォーマンスもいいし MYでよかったって心から思うよ！ずっと幸せでいてね！！！！"

"That's the PERFORMANCE !!!!aespa never dissapoints me!!!"

https://t.co/n50k4Hn12X November 11, 2025

11月29日に開催される
「ダンガンロンパ15周年フェス」
で演奏する為、リハーサルを行いました！
楽しみにしていてください！

Our sound team rehearsed for the performance at the “Danganronpa 15th Anniversary Festival”that will be held on Nov.29th!
Stay tuned!

#Danga15thAnniversary https://t.co/xeTxPBVTIB November 11, 2025

パフォーマンスは終わってしまいましたが、
この美しさは何度でも楽しめます。

次のサーキットでまた会いましょう。

The performance might be over, but art lives forever: pleasure for the eyes that can be enjoyed again and again.

See you on the next circuit.

#Pagani #ArteinPista https://t.co/SS5ABpQujS November 11, 2025

#JO1 @official_jo1
#MAMAAWARDS2025

It was so nice seeing you guys in Hong Kong. Thank you for the performance and the speech 🫶🏻
香港で会えてとっても嬉しかったです。素敵なパフォーマンスとスピーチ、ありがとうございました。 https://t.co/MjJSzqRrOS November 11, 2025

"와 리치맨 편곡 진짜 시원하다 진짜 락 느낌 확 남 ㅠㅠㅠㅠ"

"aespaちゃん美しすぎる憧れ！年々パワーアップするパフォーマンスもいいし MYでよかったって心から思うよ！ずっと幸せでいてね！！！！"

"That's the PERFORMANCE !!!!aespa never dissapoints me!!!"

https://t.co/n50k4Hn12X https://t.co/VgGhTFyYaK November 11, 2025

パフォーマンスは終わってしまいましたが、
美しさは何度でも楽しめます。

次のサーキットでまた会いましょう。

The performance might be over, but art lives forever: pleasure for the eyes that can be enjoyed again and again.

See you on the next circuit.

#Pagani #ArteinPista https://t.co/KDeUz26DlH November 11, 2025

うわっ4/12のミセス×NiziUラババン出てるじゃん！未開封でこのお値段はヤバくね？欲しいけど財布が泣いてるわ😂

The Performance ラバーバンド ミセス NiziU 4/12 限定
https://t.co/hCYnIVVnm3 November 11, 2025

うわっ4/12のミセス×NiziUラババン出てるじゃん！
俺取れなかったやつ〜😭欲しい人急げー！

The Performance ラバーバンド ミセス NiziU 4/12 限定
https://t.co/CcZqpy7V8J November 11, 2025

4/13限定のミセス×NiziUラババン出てるじゃん！未開封でこの値段はヤバいって〜誰か買って自慢してよ😂

The Performance ラバーバンド ミセス NiziU 4/13限定
https://t.co/OrA06zAfXn November 11, 2025

＼展示のご紹介—Spotlight on the Exhibition／

国際芸術祭「あいち2025」参加アーティストのマユンキキさんの展示の様子をお届けします。
愛知芸術文化センター8階に作品を展示しています。

マユンキキさんの故郷である北海道旭川と、天竜川流域を行き来しながら制作された本作は、両地域に共通する厳しい自然環境や川・橋・鉄道に着目し、現地で採集した音やアイヌの伝統歌のレコーディングを重ねて構成されています。作品の背景には、天竜峡をはじめとする旧三信鉄道の開通に尽力した祖父・川村カ子トの存在があります。旭川アイヌのリーダーでありながら測量技師として倭国の近代化に貢献した彼の功績と、その近代化によってアイヌがもともと住んでいた土地や文化が収奪された歴史に向き合い、本作をパフォーマンス作品『クㇱテ』と合わせて発表しました。

▼作品解説は、展示会場およびデジタルマップでお読みいただけます。
https://t.co/GMv4lKSOhm

We are pleased to share a glimpse of Mayunkiki’s exhibition, a participating artist in Aichi Triennale 2025. Her works are on display on the 8th floor of Aichi Arts Center.
Created while traveling between Asahikawa in Hokkaido—the hometown of Mayunkiki—and the Tenryu River basin, this work focuses on the harsh natural environments shared by both regions, as well as on rivers, bridges, and railways. It is composed by layering field recordings of local sounds with traditional Ainu songs. Behind the work lies the presence of Kawamura Kaneto, the artist’s grandfather, who played a key role in the opening of the former Sanshin Railway, including the Tenryu Gorge area. While serving as a leader of the Asahikawa Ainu, he also contributed to Japan’s modernization as a surveyor. This piece confronts both his achievements, and the history of dispossession of Ainu lands and culture brought about by modernization and is presented alongside the performance work “Kuste.”

▼ You can read the full artwork description at the exhibition venue or via the digital map.
https://t.co/5QDhlKTCcL

Credit：
Installation view at Aichi Triennale 2025
Mayunkiki, “kus,” 2025
©︎ Aichi Triennale Organizing Committee
Photo: ToLoLo studio

#contemporaryart #現代アート #愛知県 #aichitriennale #国際芸術祭あいち #国際芸術祭あいち2025 #aichitriennale2025 #チケット発売中 #あいち2025 #Mayunkiki November 11, 2025

@MisakiNako_ The performance was amazing! You were incredible. I voted for KanoChi for the pairings, so both of you having dango hairstyles is great.
パフォーマンスがすごかった！君たち最高だったよ。ペアリングでかのちぃを推してたから、二人とも団子ヘアなのが最高だね。
写真ありがとう！！ November 11, 2025